Theories of Risk and Uncertainty

Theories of Risk and UncertaintyOutline the main social theories of assay and uncertainty using at least one example as illustration.One of the most lively atomic number 18as of theoretical debate in social and cultural surmisal in juvenile times is that addressing the phenomenon of risk and the role it plays in contemporary social life and subjectivities. Three major theoretical perspectives on risk emerging since the early eighties and gaining momentum in the 1990s may be distinguished. The first is offered by the work of bloody shame Douglas, who Began in the early 1980s setting forth an authoritative perspective on risk, one that adopts a cultural anthropological approach (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982 Douglas, 1985, 1990, 1992). The German sociologist Ulrich Becks book Risk society, published in English in 1992, has provided a major impetus to recent sociological examination of risk ( for some of his other writing on risk in English see in like manner Beck, (1992a Beck and G ernsheim, 1995). The English sociologist Anthony Giddens (1990,1991,1994,1998), adopting a similar perspective to that of Beck, has also influenced sociological diagnoses of the role of role in society. A third perspective is offered by the several idealogue who endure taken up Michel Foucaults writings on governmentality ( For example, Foucault, 1991) to explore the ways in which the state and other governmental apparatuses work together to govern that is, fuck and regulate populations via risk discourses and strategies (Castel, 1991 Ewald, 1991 OMalley, 1996 Dean, 1997).These major theories argon identified respectively as the cultural/symbolic, the risk society and the governmentality perspectives.Michel FoucaultMichel Foucault was a French philosopher, sociologist and historian. In his book Security, Territory, Population, Foucault bulgelines his theory of governmentality, and demonstrates the distinction between sovereignty, discipline, and governmentality as distinct mod alities of state power. 1 The concept of risk, employed to address governmental concerns, has contributed to the production of certain kinds of rationalities, strategies and subjectivities. According to the Foucauldian perspective, risk strategies and discourses are promoter of monastic ordering the social and material worlds through methods of rationalization and calculation, attempts to render disorder and uncertainty more controllable. It is these strategies and discourses that bring risk into beingness, that select certain phenomena as being risky and therefore requiring management, either by institutions or individuals. This is an outcome of the emergence of the modern system of liberal government, with its emphasis on rule and the maintenance of order through voluntary self-discipline rather than via violent means. Risk is understood as one of the heterogeneous governmental strategies of disciplinary power by which populations and individuals are monitored and managed so as to best meet the goals of democratic humanism. Normalization, or the method by which norms of behaviour or health status are identified in populations and by which individuals are the compared to determine how best they blend the norm, is a central aspect of liberal government. Those who are determined to deviate from the norm significantly are typically identified as being at risk. To be designated as at risk, therefore, is to be positioned within a network of factors drawn from the observation of others. The import of this rationalized discourse is that risk is ultimately controllable, as long as expert k this instantledge can be properly brought to bear upon it.Some of those taking up a Foucauldian perspective have remarked upon recent change in the governance of risk, in which there is far less reliance upon social insurance and far more upon individual self-management and self-protection from risk. This is an outcome of the political ethos of neo-liberalism, which emphasizes minimal intervention on the part of the state and emphasizes self-help and individual autonomy for citizens. 2Foucault himself and those taking up his perspectives on the regulation of subjects via the discourses of governmentality may be criticized for devoting too much attention to the discourses and strategies and not enough to how people actually respond to them as part of their everyday lives.bloody shame DouglasThe authors suggest, reasonably enough, that ones personal political and cultural predispositions affect how one assess the risk of varied possible social dangers. If this were the only factor affecting peoples risk assessment, it would be quite difficult to generate an informed social constitution in a democratic society, and research in to actual risk levels associated with different degrees of social damage would be worthless, since people simply listen to the gurus that support their personal positions.The authors present no data. Why is data important? Because if 90% of voters fit their description, we are in a much different situation that if 10% do. My best guess is that people systematically underestimate most social risks (e.g. unintended nuclear war, deadly SARS-type plagues) and overestimate a few (riskiness of air travel, danger of poisons in food). Most people, however, are willing to let the ideologues battle it out, and are powerfully affected by the way the journalistic accounts of the battle portrays the cogencies of different positions. If I am right, the extremists on either side of positions, of the sort depicted by the authors, arrange a valuable function but do not determine the outcome for the purposes of social policy. For instance, there are vehement supporters of gun control and equally vehement supporters of the rights of gun owners. Most voters, however, lie somewhere in the middle and are swayed both by events and scientific evidence. If that is so, the possibility of effective social policy is possible in a democ racy. But, some say, the extremists are willing to put in time and money to sway the public, so ideology wins the day in this manner. I respond that it is wise for voters to take the strength of preferences into account in making social policy decisions. At any rate, no balanced intervention of these issues will be found in this volume.According to the NYT review Offering what they call a cultural theory of risk perception, the authors suggest that peoples complaints intimately hazards should neer be taken at face value. One must look further to discover what forms of social organization are being defended or attacked.Applying this logic, we have to ask what Mary Douglas and Wildavsky have to gain from advancing this argumentand their consistently dismissive and condescending attitude toward environmentalists makes this fairly clear. If your unenlightened opposition INSISTS on talking about certain risks AS IF that was what REALLY mattered then you are, of course, completely just ified in disregarding their point of view, (and for that matter them) entirely.Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism.Ulrich BeckCentral to Becks and Giddens writing on risk society is the concept of reflexive modernity. This concept incorporates the notion that late modernity is characterized by a critique of the processes of modernity, which no longer unproblematically viewed as producing goods (such as wealth and employment) but are immediately seen to produce many of the dangers or bads from which we feel threatened (such as environmental pollution, unemployment and family breakdown). The central institutions of late modernity government, industry and science are singles out as the main producers of risk. An emphasis on risk, Beck and Giddens assert, is thus an integral feature of a society which has come to refle ct upon itself, to critique itself.Exponents of the risk society dissertation also argue that in late modernity there is a trend towards individualization, or the progressive loss of tradition and social bonds as a means of structuring the life-course and forming personal identity. A major difference, they argue, in the ways in which we conceptualize and deal with dangers compared with individuals in earlier eras is the extent to which individuals are positioned as choosing agents. We now think of ourselves as exercising a high level of control over the extent to which we expose ourselves to danger and therefore as culpable for becoming prey to risk. Risk is primarily understood as a human responsibility, both in its production and management, rather than the outcome of fate or destiny, as was the case in pre-modern times.1 Hansen, Thomas (2001). States of Imagination. Durham Duke University Press. p.43. ISBN 0822327988.2 Dean, M. (1999) Governmentality, Sage, London